On Feb. 2, the Dartmouth Political Union hosted radio presenter and author Scott Horton and journalist Eli Lake for a debate on the causes of the Russia-Ukraine war. The pair took opposing sides — Horton answering in the affirmative and Lake in the negative — on the resolution, “The United States started the new Cold War with Russia and provoked Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
The event was organized in collaboration with the SoHo Forum, a debate series hosted by the Reason Foundation, a non-profit libertarian organization which uses “journalism and public policy research to influence the frameworks and actions of policymakers.” DPU ambassador Ben Cashwell ’28 said the event marked the first collaboration between the two organizations.
“They reached out to us, they brought the speakers in and [they had] their own line of questioning,” he said. “It’s an interesting topic. I’m curious to see what [Lake and Horton] have to say.”
The debate, which was moderated by Soho Forum founder Gene Epstein and held in Filene Auditorium, drew an audience of approximately 50 students, professors and community members, DPU president Mac Mahoney said. The livestream of the event has 13,000 views.
Horton began the event with an opening statement, claiming that the United States had “provoked” Russia into conflict by furthering NATO’s reach and becoming involved in Ukrainian politics. Horton argued, for example, that U.S. support for Ukrainian protest movements in 2004 and 2014 led to a “revolution” in which Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych was ousted.
“The CIA changed from doing covert coups d’etats, like in Iran in [19]53 and Guatemala in [19]54, to overt coup d’etats, essentially coups dressed up as revolutions,” said Horton. “With tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars in these countries to overthrow governments friendly to Russia and this escalated to the very worst in the Obama years in 2014,” when Yanukovych was “kicked out of town.”
The United States’ presence in Ukraine had violated the latter’s “neutrality” between NATO and Russia, which had been in place since the end of the Cold War, according to Horton. The 2014 coup “immediately led to the loss of Crimea” when the “new government [that the U.S.] supported” threatened Russia’s naval base on the peninsula.
Horton added that he holds “no sympathy for Russia” and that his disagreement with U.S. policy does not equate to loyalty to Russia.
“This is America,” Horton said. “We’re allowed to criticize our government.”
Countering Horton’s position, Lake began his opening statement by arguing that Russian president Vladimir Putin had invaded Ukraine for “imperial ambitions.” Lake cited as evidence a “speech to the Russian nation” delivered by Putin in February 2022.
“Quoting Vladimir Putin on the eve of the war, ‘Since time immemorial the people living in Ukraine have called themselves Russians. … Modern Ukraine was created by Bolshevik communists,’” Lake said. “Does this sound like a man who was backed into a corner?”
Lake said a 1991 referendum resulted in 85% of Ukrainians voting in support of separation from Russia. By invading Ukraine, Russia’s goal was to “extinguish Ukraine’s language and culture,” Lake argued.
“[Putin’s] real fear is that his own citizens will see Ukrainians, Jordanians, Belarusians, one day thriving and living in democratic societies.” Lake said “And that his own population will ask why they must live under the sum of a tyrant when their neighbors do not.”
In his rebuttal, Horton argued that Russia’s invasion was “not justified” but because in the event of a NATO-Russia war, “Ukraine would be another auxiliary army as part of NATO, whether they were a full fledged member or not.” Horton then suggested a hypothetical in which the United States had collapsed after the Cold War and Russia was influencing the Canadian government — noting that, in this scenario, the United States would likely respond aggressively.
“America put [Putin’s] back to the wall,” Horton argued. “[Putin] didn’t wait until he was in the corner to react.”
Reframing Horton’s argument, Lake responded that the United States supports countries’ aspirations for democracy and self-determination. The war is evidence that “Putin has seriously miscalculated” Ukraine’s willingness to live under Russian rule, Lake added.
“To explain this war of conquest as a reaction to the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization gets it precisely backwards,” Lake said. “The expansion of NATO was driven by the depressing fears of former captive nations, who knew Soviet domination first hand.”
Both before and after the debate, audience members were asked if they agreed with, disagreed with or were unsure about the resolution. The percentage of the audience who disagreed with the resolution rose from 40 to 52 between the two polls. The percentage of attendees who agreed rose from 38 to 48. Of the 12 percent of people who were originally unsure, a slight majority sided with Horton.
During an audience Q&A following the debate, some audience members expressed discomfort with Horton’s argument and methodology. Ukrainian and Russian language professor Victoria Somoff asked whether Horton had “ever been to Ukraine” or used any Ukrainian language sources when writing his book, “Provoked,” in which he argues that the United States antagonized Russia into invading Ukraine.
“I strongly disagree with just about every step of your argument,” Somoff said. “And I believe you said a few things that are outright offensive to Ukrainians.”
After the debate, Horton said in his closing remarks that he had not been to Ukraine.
“I believe that if you write about a country and culture, even though [Horton] says his focus is American policy, it’s necessary … to consult sources in that language,” Somoff said in an interview following the event. “If he consulted Ukrainian sources, he would probably doubt his own conclusions.”
Cashwell said after the event that he enjoyed the “interesting” conversation.
“I think it’s always interesting to bring in people with radical views because when we disagree with them it’s interesting to hear those opinions,” he said.
