When it comes to party politics, New Hampshire has a tendency to subvert expectations. Republicans currently hold a trifecta in state government, controlling the governor’s mansion and both state legislative chambers. Democrats, meanwhile, hold all four Congressional offices. No other state can say the same. On Nov. 5, New Hampshire voters will head to the polls to decide whether to continue their independent streak in national, statewide and local elections.
New Hampshire’s electorate makes for a distinct brand of politics. Forty percent of New Hampshire voters are “undeclared,” and the libertarian “Live Free or Die” culture is “very pervasive,” according to New Hampshire voter Zoe McGuirk ’25. At the national level, the state has a blue streak, however narrow, having voted Democratic in the last five presidential elections. University of New Hampshire Survey Center director Andrew Smith said New Hampshire has been classified as a swing state for the last 20 years but “definitely leans Democratic.”
“It’s about a plus four Democratic state,” Smith said. “That means that a good Republican candidate … against a bad Democratic candidate can certainly win in New Hampshire.”
He also noted that — with the exception of 2000, when Republican George W. Bush beat Al Gore — Democrats have won every presidential election in New Hampshire since 1992. Smith attributed New Hampshire’s Democratic tilt to state demographics.
“[New Hampshire has] tremendous population churn,” Smith said. “About every eight years, a third of potential voters are different people.”
He added that New Hampshire constituents have one of the highest income and educational attainment levels in the country, which “correlates” with voting Democratic.
In early October, government professor Jason Barabas, who serves as director of the Rockefeller Center for Public Policy, conducted polling of registered New Hampshire voters alongside students in his course on election polling. The results showed a “double digit lead” for Vice President Kamala Harris, which Barabas said is “enough” for national parties to “focus” on other swing states.
“Here in New Hampshire, if you look at The New York Times average of the polling that’s been done at the presidential level, it seems to be a pretty sizable Harris lead,” Barabas said. “Almost double digits, or high single digits. And so perhaps for that reason, the national parties haven’t really invested all that much in this particular state at the presidential level.”
Attention has not shifted, however, from down-ballot races. New Hampshire is home to the “most competitive” gubernatorial election in the country, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. The race to replace incumbent Gov. Chris Sununu is pitting former New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte, a Republican, against former Manchester, N.H., Democratic mayor Joyce Craig. Current polling by the University of New Hampshire has Craig leading by just 1%.
Even still, McGuirk said Ayotte will “probably win,” due to Craig’s candidate quality.
“I don’t think that Joyce Craig is the strongest candidate,” McGuirk said. “I don’t think we had any strong Democratic candidates this time around, so we don’t have a very strong coalition of Democratic voters.”
In addition to McGuirk’s doubts about Craig’s strengths, Barabas said the Rockefeller Center’s polling, which shows Craig with a five point lead, is “interesting” considering New Hampshire voters’ recent tendency to vote Republican in state elections. The GOP has held the governorship since Sununu first took office in 2017.
“To have a Democrat be as competitive as Craig is quite an interesting factor,” Barabas said. “So at the state level, the wind might have been at the backs of the Republicans for that gubernatorial seat, but we [will] see.”
Barabas attributed New Hampshire voters’ “preference” for Republicans at the state level to their “fiscally conservative and socially liberal” identities. McGuirk said she thinks many Democrats who tend to vote for their party “up and down the ticket” made political “exceptions” by splitting their tickets for Sununu.
Smith noted that voters tend to view the governor as less “political” than the president.
“The governor is more seen as an administrator of the state, or like a CEO, rather than as a political leader, even though obviously they’re engaged in politics,” Smith said.
In addition to the presidential race and state politics, there are also New Hampshire’s two House seats to consider. Smith predicts that Democrats will win both congressional races “comfortably” by a margin of five to 10 points. The latest Granite State Poll — conducted by the UNH Survey Center — showed Democratic incumbent Rep. Chris Pappas leading Republican candidate Russell Presscott by 17 points among likely voters in the 1st Congressional District. Democrat Maggie Goodlander similarly led Republican Lily Tang Williams in the 2nd Congressional District by 11 points among likely voters.
McGuirk said Goodlander has a “good amount” of support in the race for the second congressional seat, which is currently held by retiring Rep. Annie Kuster ’78. Barabas added that both Goodlander and Tang are “paying attention” to Hanover as each candidate participated in a forum at the Rockefeller Center in August.
The races for the New Hampshire Executive Council, state House of Representatives and state Senate, meanwhile, generally favor Republicans, according to Smith.
The Executive Council is a five-person elected body that works closely with the governor to approve legislative spending and confirm gubernatorial nominations. Each councilor is elected in a separate race in their respective districts, according to the New Hampshire Constitution. Smith said the Republicans are likely to win a majority of the seats in the Executive Council because “gerrymandered” districts make it “extremely hard” for Democrats to win the majority.
“Republicans drew maps that favored them after the 2020 census,” Smith said. “It’s either a four to one or a three to two Republican majority.”
Smith said the 24 districts of the New Hampshire Senate are similarly gerrymandered and will likely keep Republicans in the majority.
“My estimate is that Republicans at worst will be a 12 to 12 tie in the [Senate],” Smith said. “[Republicans] could be a 14 to 10 Republican majority. It’s not going to be one-sided Republican, but they’ll likely have a majority.”
The elections for the New Hampshire House of Representatives are more “competitive and interesting,” according to Smith. He explained that Republicans are more “spread out” across the state, giving their party a “slight advantage.” Meanwhile, Democrats in larger towns or districts are “concentrated,” allowing the Democratic Party to “potentially” win a majority in the state legislature.
“My sense is that this year, given the election and the unpopularity of Trump, that Democrats could potentially win the State House, but it would be close,” Smith said.
Dartmouth will also have a presence in races on election night. Government professor Russell Muirhead, who has represented Grafton County District 12 — which includes Hanover — since 2020, is running for a third term. Institute for Writing and Rhetoric lecturer Ellen Rockmore, a first-time candidate, is running in the same seat, and both are running unopposed. The district, which elects four members each cycle, only features four qualifiers on the ballot this year, including Muirhead and Rockmore.
Barabas pointed to the 2000 presidential election — in which New Hampshire was “pivotal to setting up that whole Florida situation” — to showcase New Hampshire’s importance. Bush carried New Hampshire’s four electoral votes, without which he would have lost the election regardless of the outcome in Florida.
He advised that Democrats not take the Granite State “for granted.”
