American politicians must achieve a balance between making independent decisions and taking their constituents' political views into account, according to Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of Gallup, an organization that conducts polls and publishes analytical data. Newport was the 10th and final speaker of the "Leading Voices in Politics and Policy" lecture series, delivering his address to a packed audience in Moore Theater on Aug. 23.
Newport spent the first half of the hour-long presentation discussing two prevailing approaches taken by politicians when considering how to merge public opinion and the creation of policy. The first paradigm is the delegate model, in which politicians serve as ambassadors whose decisions always reflect the views of their constituents, "as measured by polls," Newport said. On the other extreme of the ideological spectrum is the trustee model in which politicians may disregard the feelings of the public when making political decisions, he said.
"We should not be paying attention to the whims of the people, the up and down whims of the people," he said, explaining the mindset behind the trustee model. "Elected representatives need to use their wise judgments to make decisions."
Newport said he favors a moderate approach that balances both public opinion and politicians' expert views.
Politicians should consider public opinion to a certain extent because they have the available resources to scientifically measure Americans' thoughts and feelings "at almost any time," he said.
Newport cited the ongoing political upheavals in Libya and Egypt as examples of what might occur when politicians "are not paying attention to the views of the public." He cautioned that without consideration of the general public's needs and feelings, governments could find themselves faced with angry constituents.
Although politicians do consider the findings of polls "in a broad sense," politicians are generally averse to discussing polls in a public manner, Newport said. Newport drew from the example that President Barack Obama "never used the p-word,'" illustrating that although Obama appealed to the bully pulpit, he rarely conceded that he was keeping tabs on public opinion due to the stigma that polls have in Washington.
A lack of understanding of how polling works may contribute to politicians' ambivalence to scientific measures of public opinion, according to Newport. Many polling agents strive to gather representative data on a regular basis, and the Gallup Poll takes a random sample of 1,000 people a night to assess the "health, well-being and state of the political scene," he said.
"There is great wisdom in collected together views and insights," Newport said, adding that over time, there has been a "movement" toward this collected wisdom.
Polling is the best means of measuring Americans' "day-to-day experience," according to Newport.
To demonstrate how Americans feel about the current political climate in the United States, Newport presented several statistics reflected in the polls. For example, 13 percent of Americans currently trust Congress, which is the "lowest" figure in Gallup's history. Newport said that while Congress' approval is low, Americans indicated less trust in both used car salesmen and lobbyists. Gallup's poll also found that nurses, teachers and pharmacists are among the groups that Americans trusted the most.
Only 11 percent of Americans are satisfied with the overall situation in the United States, which Newport said is related to both the economy and to the "situation in Washington."
Newport said that although politicians are still hesitant to discuss the significance of gathered data, they "love pollsters when it comes to getting re-elected."
"We need to be more honest about paying attention to polls," he said.
The current political system encourages polarization among politicians on either end of the political spectrum, Newport said. Still, this polarization within the system does not accurately reflect most Americans' views, according to Newport.
"Polling helps obviate that problem," he said.
Government professor Deborah Brooks, who moderated the address, turned the session into a question and answer forum. Chief Executive Officer of General Electric and College Trustee Jeffrey Immelt '78, the previous speaker in the lecture series, had previously posed the first question for Newport. Immelt asked whether or not there were still many Americans who are politically moderate.
Newport said that while data suggest that the representative process has become more divided and that the media often display more polarizing headlines, the middle does still exist.
"That middle's opinion doesn't get out there a lot of the time," he said.
An audience member asked about Obama's approval rating and whether he would be able to strengthen his popularity in time for the 2012 presidential election.
Obama's current overall job approval rating 38 percent is lower than that of any American president in history who was successfully re-elected, according to Newport.
"It's possible to recover," he said, but added that Obama likely needs a 48 to 50 percent job approval rating to be re-elected. "Time is running out for the Obama campaign."
Newport said a weak Republican competitor could also lead to a victory for the president.
After Newport concluded his presentation, economics professor Charles Wheelan '88 who helped organize the Summer term lecture series capped "Leading Voices" with remarks attributing the series' overall message to College President Jim Yong Kim's philosophy.
"This lecture series is part of his broader vision about engaging Dartmouth students and the community in our larger public challenges," Wheelan said. "We want to project far beyond Hanover."
