The air temperature of the earth has risen about one degree Celsius in the last one hundred years. This is something on which all scientists agree. After that, though, things begin to get sticky.
The mainstream opinion of climate scientists is that global warming is attributable to human activity, such as in the production of carbon dioxide and methane, and that over the next 100 years the situation will worsen as the temperature of the earth increases predicted two to five degrees Celsius. These are essentially the findings of the 2001 Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and also the findings that Al Gore has so highly publicized through his documentary "An Inconvenient Truth."
Not all scientists, however, agree with the IPCC's findings. Some believe that global warming is caused solely by natural processes, others think that the causes are unknown, and still others believe that climate change will actually benefit human society. There is also a group that insists that global warming is not occurring, or if it ever did, it has now ceased.
But what opinions do the members of the Dartmouth community hold and how do they plan to face global climate change?
In an informal poll of 35 Dartmouth students, 33 responded that they believed human activity contributes to global warming. Two responded that they believed the cause of global warming is unknown.
Professors weigh in
Scott Stokoe manages Dartmouth's organic farm. He feels that humans do impact global warming, and that the first step to remedy this is positive action.
When we met on campus on Wednesday morning before going out to the farm, the weather was warm and wet. Stokoe was quick to note that this weather was not an argument for global warming, though.
"Climate is a chaos system," he said. "It's not one season, or a trend or two, but a much bigger picture, based on thousands and tens of thousands of years... A day-to-day perception of climate change is not as good of an indication as other indicators might be."
When we arrived at the farm, Stokoe showed me the two greenhouses on the property, one fueled by propane gas, using what Stokoe describes as "1960s state-of-the art technology," and the other, still under construction, that when completed will be entirely solar-powered. The original greenhouse, Stokoe pointed out, was organic, but not sustainable. "Forty to sixty pounds of plastic go to the landfill every three years," he explained. Plus, since the major source of heat is propane, the greenhouse is powered by a non-renewable fossil fuel.
Thus arose the need for the solar-powered greenhouse, which was designed as a retrofit by Thayer engineering students enrolled in a design methodology and project initiation course over the summer.
Stokoe stressed that the solar-powered greenhouse was not economically viable at present. He hopes, however, that the experience students have working on it now will be helpful for the future. "When it becomes economically viable, it'll also be technologically viable," he explained.
"Change is coming. We can't hide behind the change argument. We have faced change before and we can face it again."
Walter Sinnott-Armstrong is a professor of philosophy at Dartmouth. He is also a co-editor of 2005's "Perspectives on Climate Change: Science, Economics, Politics, Ethics." In his essay "It's not my fault: global warming and individual moral obligations," Sinnott-Armstrong summarized how he entertains many moral theories and how they might apply to the problem of climate change. "Partly it's a political problem, partially it's a personal problem. How do you deal with risk when you really don't know? I think that's a central issue in ethics."
Sinnott-Armstong strongly believes that humans contribute to global warming. "The science is not absolutely certain, but it's pretty close, and you don't want to take a chance," he said.
As for skeptics, Sinnott-Armstrong responded, "Do you want to take a chance with the future of our planet? Averages of serious climate models say it's not just a warming trend."
Believers and Skeptics
John Topping graduated from Dartmouth in 1964 and, since its founding in 1986, has been the president of the Climate Institute in Washington D.C., a non-governmental organization dedicated to raising awareness about global warming. "Climate change is really happening," he stated. "The facts are overwhelmingly established. There is uncertainty about how things will play out in the future. What's alarming at this point is that what we're seeing right now is what we thought we'd see in 2020 or 2030."
Topping explained that the Climate Institute is currently working on a program with tribal colleges, which serves the Native American population and several other universities across the nation. "What we're trying to do is establish a link between Dartmouth, Stanford and American University... with the tribal colleges on reservations so that the science departments and Native American Studies programs can become very active."
Then, the Native students, who by living on reservations are "the most vulnerable to climate change," will have a chance to "be masters of their own fates."
Conversely, John Hinderaker '71 has gained recognition as one of two prolific writers on the highly trafficked conservative weblog Power Line. The climate change debate is only one of many current issues that the site covers. Hindraker is strongly convinced that there is little evidence supporting human contribution to global warming or, if anything, that the contribution is very small.
"The earth is always getting warmer or cooler," he said. Hinderaker emphasized the need to explore fluctuations in the sun and cloud cover. "What's going on is not science. It's economics and politics."
Hinderaker thinks that "an appropriate degree of humility" is necessary in today's debate on climate change.
"Do we have the ability to control the weather? The answer is no. The net affect that we have is small on the weather. If we wanted to control the weather, what would we even do... The really catastrophic event is the next ice age -- not warming."
He also believes that a lot of the debate is motivated by a need for control. "Some people always want to believe that this is the fault of the United States... If it's our fault then it's under our control. We find it hard to accept that we can't control everything -- including the climate.
"Hysteria and panic are very unhelpful," Hinderaker explained. "Get away from politically charged polemics and study the science. Don't take Al Gore's word for it."
Thinking green on the Green
Josh Hurd '08 is a writer for the Dartmouth Green Magazine and the creator of its website -- one with a very different message from Power Line's. "Humans may not outright cause [global warming], but do contribute to its acceleration,"Hurd explained. "I like to draw an analogy to the environment and the human body. If you have 95 percent of doctors saying this is what's wrong with your body and five percent saying, 'Actually you're wrong, this is what's happening,' does this mean you should despair and not doing anything about it? Or does it mean move forward and try to do something about it?"
Hurd encourages students at Dartmouth to get involved, even as a small commitment. "Little things are important," he said. "Everyday decisions on a mass level can do a lot of good."
Minal Caron '09 is a Nordic skier, and believes that global warming is affected by human activity. He says that he has seen a difference in the snow quality over the last several years. "As a skier looking at the snow on the trails, it doesn't necessarily formulate my ideas on climate change, but we do get to be cynical."
Caron was raised in upstate Maine, where snow is an industry. "It's good all around when there's snow." He also pointed out, however, that the more tourists enjoy the snow, through skiing and snowmobiling, the more they add to the possibility of global warming. "It seems like commons sense... if there are more people, more technology, it's going to affect the environment."
It does seem like common sense to many, but with issues as complex as the whole planet's weather, there might be more than meets the eye. While the view that human actions have contributed significantly to a trend of global warming is squarely in the mainstream, so too was a flat world. Debate, supported by fact and not fear, can only help us and our planet.
