Washington Post political correspondent Terry Neal outlined strong cases yesterday at the Rockefeller Center for why both President Bush and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry could win the upcoming November election. Delivering a speech titled "On the Campaign Trail: The Year Ahead," Neal said he would "do what any bold, visionary reporter would do -- take both sides."
Neal, a senior political correspondent at washingtonpost.com, has worked as a reporter for The Washington Post for a decade, covering local, state and national politics. He covered the 2004 Iowa caucus and writes an online news analysis column.
Detailing the case for a Bush victory in November, Neal stressed the importance of Bush's financial resources for the campaign, his familiarity with voters, an energized Republican base that will "get out the vote." He further emphasized Bush's exceptional "message discipline" and the ability of conservative media outlets to carry Bush's message to the voters.
"Money is not everything, but it is a lot in politics," said Neal, who argued that "the Bush money advantage is already making a difference in this election" because it has allowed Bush to define Kerry in such a way that he cannot respond, given Kerry's currently-limited financial resources. The Bush campaign expects to raise $170 million, and the Kerry campaign expects to raise $100 million.
Neal said Kerry could win in November because of liberal groups, such as The Media Fund, that can "exploit loopholes in the campaign finance law" to match or exceed George W. Bush's spending in "an unprecedented assault." Such groups are supported by people like billionaire George Soros, whose spending is not restricted by campaign finance law.
Additionally, Bush "has the lowest approval rating among members of the opposite party of any president since World War II," Neal said, indicating that the Democratic base strongly supports Kerry. Neal also argued that Bush pointing out Kerry's flip-flopping on contentious issues will highlight Bush's own position swings on issues such as nation-building, steel tariffs and gay marriage.
Neal has had a notable career in journalism. He quickly worked his way up the journalistic ladder, reporting for the Ft. Lauderdale Sun Sentinel and then the Miami Herald. He was the second-youngest person to cover national politics for the Washington Post and in 1999 was named the beat reporter for George W. Bush's campaign, which he covered from start to finish.
Responding to a question about Kerry's potential choice for vice president, Neal cited a Democratic insiders' poll that listed Sen. John Edwards, Rep. Dick Gephardt, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, and Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack as the leading candidates for the position. Neal said that Kerry will probably name his running mate a few weeks before the Democratic national convention in July, delaying the potential distraction that naming a vice president poses.
In other responses to questions, Neal argued that Iraq, not the economy, will be the most important election issue, that Kerry's ambivalence about his position on free trade is a problem that he needs to resolve and that negative campaigning will not affect voter turnout.
He added that Ralph Nader is facing an "extraordinary amount of pressure to pull out" of the presidential race but that "it's likely he'll stay in."
Neal concluded by noting his role as a journalist, not a soothsayer, and that "no one really knows what's going to happen in this election.
"As they say in sports, that's why they play the game," he said.
