Salaries and egos aren't the only things that have been growing exponentially over the past few years in baseball.
Offensive statistics have exploded as parity has hit the pitcher's mound the hardest, while bigger physical specimens have aided the men in the batter's box.
The 400-home run mark used to ensure Hall of Fame status, but those days are long gone, so to speak. Soon enough many milestone records will fall, and Hank Aaron's career home run record is far from safe.
The only question is who will break it?
Previous wisdom would suggest that it is longevity that will take the slugger to the hollowed ground of Aaron. He never hit 50 home runs in a season, but still outdistanced Ruth. Let's keep that in mind as we look into the crystal ball. With all that having been said, here are the odds that the 10 active home run leaders will catch Hammerin' Hank.
Mark McGwire (554 HRs)
"Big Mac" sits seventh on the all-time home run list and is 201 taters behind Aaron. A math major will let you know that McGwire needs 67 in the next three seasons to get there. While he is healthy this spring, McGwire is coming off a knee injury and surgery that may affect his chances in the years to come. He hit 32 bombs last year in just 89 games played, so when he is in the lineup he can produce. McGwire is normally not concerned with numbers, but this one may be hard for him to ignore. Add in the fact that St. Louis will be a National League powerhouse in the next few years and his retirement seems unlikely. He'll get there and then hang them up.
OUTLOOK: Just about even. ODDS: 5 to 4; FINAL CAREER HR TOTAL: 773
Barry Bonds (494 HRs)
Even though Bonds will turn 37 this summer, he still smacked 49 home runs a year ago in just 143 games and has a shot at reaching Aaron status. With a brand new ballpark (that includes a short porch in right) and one of the best teams in the National League, Bonds has little reason to consider retiring if he continues to play at such a high level. Bonds wants to erase October woes and you can't help but think that eventually he will. Reaching 50 knocks a year for 5 years will put him in the vicinity. It would be an impressive feat, but it is a possibility.
OUTLOOK: Very well could happen. ODDS: 5 to 1; FINAL HR TOTAL: 722
Ken Griffey, Jr. (438 HRs)
At just 31-years-old, Griffey has the sweetest swing in baseball. He hit a disappointing .271 a year ago, but still managed to drill 40 home runs in 145 games. His average climbed steadily after the All-Star Break and he'll eventually find a home outside of Cincinnati where he have a few more unbelievable seasons. Barring injury, he should certainly reach the 700-HR plateau and could go even higher.
OUTLOOK: Very good. ODDS: 3 to 4; FINAL HR TOTAL: 821
Cal Ripken, Jr. (417 HRs)
At 40 years old, Ripken is headed to the Hall of Fame. He hit 15 home runs in just 83 games a year ago. If anyone's body could take another four or five years of baseball beating, Ripken's could. But he would have to smack 60 a year.
OUTLOOK: Slim to none. ODDS: 1,000 to 1; FINAL HR TOTAL: 487
Rafael Palmeiro (400 HRs)
No one has hit 400 home runs quieter than this All-Star. He turns 37 in September, but is still producing as he bashed 39 in 158 games last season. Palmeiro just does not have the time to get there, but his steady production will get him above 500 and into the Hall. He certainly deserves it.
OUTLOOK: Not going to happen. ODDS: 80 to 1 FINAL HR TOTAL: 531
Sammy Sosa (386 HRs)
He is in excellent shape. He is as strong as they come. And he has an excellent eye. Even though he is going to turn 33 in November, his career is still on the upswing. He hit 50 home runs last year and will probably be good for about that this year, provided he stays healthy. I don't think he will get to Aaron, but he will come very close.
OUTLOOK: A distinct possibility. ODDS: 3 to 1; FINAL HR TOTAL: 703
Juan Gonzalez (362 HRs)
Juan Gone will be 32 in October, leaving him plenty of years to enjoy the friendly confines of Jacobs Field. But after just 22 home runs in 115 games last year, the slugger has become too streaky to reach the magic number.
OUTLOOK: Doubtful. ODDS: 19 to 1; FINAL HR TOTAL: 612
