After months of town meetings, speeches and hand shaking, the voters of New Hampshire turned out in record numbers yesterday to register their decisions in the country's first primary leading up to the 2000 Presidential election, making Arizona Senator John McCain and Vice President Al Gore the choices for their respective party nominations.
McCain defied most predictions, scoring a landslide victory of 49 percent to Bush's 31 percent, while Gore maintained a lead over Bradley, but did not earn much gloating-room with his four percentage point victory.
With the nation's first primary votes tallied, the candidates are reconsidering their campaign tactics and moving on to woo potential voters in the rest of the country.
The Republicans
The Republican results held surprises both for the leading runners and the minor candidates.
McCain heads into the South Carolina primary two weeks away with a surprising lead over front-runner Bush, exceeding expectations.
The New York Times reported that Bush advisers were caught off guard by the magnitude of their loss yesterday in New Hampshire, even though the state is known to support maverick candidates like McCain.
One Bush adviser told the New York Times, "I think we were prepared for a 5-to-7 point loss. The dimensions of this are troubling. We worked very hard. We wanted it really bad."
Other candidates positions were also disrupted by McCain's near majority support. Third place candidate Steve Forbes came out with a respectable 13 percent of the vote, but he had gone into the primary looking for 20.
Alan Keyes recorded six percent of N. H. voters but Gary Bauer leaves the state with only one percent. In his concession speech last night, Bauer was gracious as he has been throughout the campaign, but his future in the race is up in the air.
As both McCain and Bush noted in their speeches last night, the New Hampshire primary is only the first step in a long pre-election season, and both candidates have a lot of work ahead of them.
In his victory speech, McCain referred to the campaign as a "crusade that has just begun."
This terminology was similar to Bush's, which compared the campaign season to a marathon, not a sprint, calling the New Hampshire primary only the first leg of the race.
According to Government professor Linda Fowler, Bush now faces a significant obstacle, since historically, it is hard to come by candidates who lost the primary election but went on to win the party's nomination.
"You don't seem to be able to win without it, but winning it doesn't guarantee you the election," she said.
She noted that current President Bill Clinton is the only person who lost the primary election in New Hampshire but went on to win both the party nomination and the November Presidential election. But, she said candidates like Paul Tsongas, Gary Heart and Pat Buchanan who won the New Hampshire primary, did not go on to win nominations from their parties.
Despite these historical examples, McCain is not a shoe-in to come out on top in South Carolina, a state where Bush is now winning by a 20 percentage point margin in recent polls.
Up to this point, McCain has concentrated his efforts on New Hampshire, even remaining here during the Iowa Caucus last week. But even before the votes were completely tallied in New Hampshire last night, McCain hopped an airplane to South Carolina, where he held a rally at midnight, transferring his attentions to his campaign's future.
Much of the television commentary last night noted that McCain's appeal to Independent voters -- who make up about 36 percent of the New Hampshire electorate -- helped him in first primary, where regulations on registered independents are not very rigorous.
However, this independent voter pool could dwindle in states like South Carolina, where strict party lines are important in the primary process and changing party affiliations is a tedious ordeal.
Another of the problems that faces McCain as he moves forward from New Hampshire is that Bush is more popular in South Carolina because of his family, his religious beliefs and his position as the perceived frontrunner.
But the key issue that McCain must counter as he moves into the Palmetto State is his lack of available funds. While Bush has over $10 million of cash on hand, McCain has only a little over $2 million.
This may not be an unconquerable obstacle for McCain though, considering that in New Hampshire, he spent $2.1 million compared to Bush's $3.3 million, but still won the primary -- even among registered Republicans.
Fowler said Bush should be analyzing his campaign strategy now to determine what tactics he should take as the primary season moves forward. She said the fact that he is running his campaign out of his home state of Texas and mostly following the suggestions of his father's advisors may have hurt him in this first election.
She said the big question for Bush's team to answer is whether it was the message Bush has been delivering throughout his campaign or the way that he has been delivering it that proved to be the problem for him in New Hampshire.
The Democrats
The Democratic primary left the perceived frontrunner, Gore, in the lead, but not with a large enough margin for Bradley to abandon the race.
"It's not big enough to make Bradley thin, he's in the wrong business," Fowler said.
She said the two Democratic candidates will most likely continue running the tough, aggressive campaigns that have classified the race so far.
However, she said Bradley could face future road blocks in the Southern states, where Gore has backing from unions, teachers and black voters.
At the Gore headquarters last night, the mood was jubilant, with music and confetti, despite the narrow margin of Gore's victory.
In his victory speech, the Vice President compared the primary to a Super Bowl game and said his team was "in the end zone."
He told his supporters, "You ain't seen nothing yet."
Political analysts had mixed opinions about the results of the Democratic primary. Some said the close margin could add steam to Bradley's prospects, while others said Gore's victory proved him to be the true Democratic frontrunner.
-- updated 02/02/00 12:52 p.m.
