This is it. By the end of the evening, the entire country will know which candidate from the Democratic and Republican parties has won the first-in-the-nation NH primary of election 2000. For John McCain, George W. Bush, Alan Keyes, Steve Forbes, Gary Bauer, Bill Bradley and Al Gore this day will forever have significance -- be it bad or good. For some, today could signify the end of their presidential campaign run while for others it is just game one of the series.
Just four months ago, the Republican Party saw John Kasich, Elizabeth Dole, Lamar Alexander, and Dan Quayle all concede defeat and drop from the presidential race long before even a single vote was cast. Just days ago, after the Republican Iowa caucus, Orrin Hatch decided to drop out of the race. Depending on tonight's results, one can expect the Republican field to lose at least three more candidates.
For McCain, New Hampshire is do or die. Having ignored Iowa, McCain shrewdly put his energy into campaigning here in New Hampshire, as well as South Carolina and Michigan. According to the most recent poll numbers, there is every indication that McCain is on his way to an important victory in the Granite State. Despite a small campaign war chest, not having a nationwide campaign organization, being labeled as an "insider" and a "maverick," and touting campaign finance reform as his biggest issue while opposing the Republican Party establishment, McCain has proven himself to the people of New Hampshire.
Some academics and political analysts suggest that retail politics no longer exist in this media-dominated world. However, McCain has proven that campaigns do work, that grassroots interaction does work, and that town hall meetings coupled with effective advertising campaigns can educate the public and inspire voters. He needs this win to show not only that he is capable of inspiring American voters, but more importantly that he can beat George W. Bush.
Coming out of his win in Iowa, Bush has spent the past few days attempting to lower expectations in anticipation of a mediocre performance here in New Hampshire. Perhaps he enjoyed the thrill of victory for a few hours in Iowa, but indeed New Hampshire could prove to be a humbling experience. His lackluster performance in Wednesday night's debate taught the public two things. One, he is just another pretty face who is by no means an overwhelming presence. Two, if he does in fact win the nomination he needs some serious debate coaching before he is devoured by Al Gore's debating prowess or left numb and stuttering in the wake of Bradley's intellect.
After a debate that involved some light nudging, some whining, and some heavy hitting from both sides, Bradley has gotten more aggressive and put on the full court press leading into today's contest. Fundamentally, the New Hampshire primary is not a make or break contest for Bradley. He has been able to match, and even surpass, the vice president in fundraising, and no doubt has a national organization and the resources to make it through the next few weeks of critical Democratic primaries. Still, a win against the Vice President is important so as to give him positive media attention and national exposure as a winner before March 7 when California and New York hold their primaries.
Gore, basking in his big win in Iowa and enjoying several accolades from the President Bill Clinton's recent State of the Union address, is hoping to continue his winning streak here in New Hampshire. While poking holes in Bradley's health care reform proposals and attempting to depict Bradley as a negative campaigner, the Vice President is running strong and hoping to leave this state as the "sure thing" for the Democratic nomination. One has to wonder -- if Gore does win today, will his advisors and Democratic Party officials encourage (read: pressure) Bradley to drop out of the race so the Vice President can save his financial resources for the general election?
Although election predictions are as valuable as student input on the Trustee's Student Life Initiative, here are some predictions as a parting thought. My predictions: McCain 42 percent, Bush 35, Forbes 12, Keyes 10, Bauer 1. And for the Democrats: Bradley over Gore by a narrow margin of 51 to 48 and the remaining 1 to other candidates.
