In what will likely be the most important election event until the February 1 primaries in New Hampshire, Democrat Vice President Al Gore and Republican Texas Governor George W. Bush won the Iowa Caucuses last night, marking an important -- if anticipated -- victory for the two frontrunners.
With 95 percent of the votes counted, Gore received 64 percent of the Democratic vote, while support for former Senator Bill Bradley registered at roughly 35 percent. In the Republican race, Bush garnered 41 percent of the vote, while publisher Steve Forbes achieved a closer-than expected second place finish of 30 percent, and Alan Keyes, who captured 14 percent of the vote, came in third, distantly followed by Gary Bauer, John McCain, and Orrin Hatch.
While Iowa does not regularly predict the outcome of the New Hampshire primaries -- in the most recent contested race, Bob Dole won in Iowa in 1996, but lost in New Hampshire -- it has long been an electoral prize for presidential contenders wishing to build on the media momentum that the event creates.
"It hasn't really affected the nomination process generally," government professor Linda Fowler said last night. "The national press has been covering it pretty closely the last few days, but I think the N.H. media has still been focusing on the election here."
The caucus marked a sharp disappointment for underdog Bradley who, after investing large amounts of campaign time and funds in the state, had hoped for a closer outcome. He now faces a close race in the February 1 primary, where the most recent polls place him slightly behind Gore.
"He was doing so well in New Hampshire, and it could have diverted his momentum there," Fowler said. "It's just a classic example of the problems that all the candidates have with this very compressed time table."
Many states have pushed their primaries and caucuses closer to the beginning of the season, creating a more compact election schedule.
Gore, on the other hand, had enjoyed a large margin of support in Iowa. Buoyed by the endorsements of unions and the state's top elected Democratic officials, he was able to successfully surround himself with an aura of inevitability.
In fact, pre-caucus polls predicted both Gore's and Bush's winnings, leaving their campaigns to worry largely about their margins of victory.
Bush's less than decisive win could now be interpreted as a vulnerability, possibly adding momentum to the McCain and Forbes candidacy in New Hampshire. According to most polls, Bush and McCain currently share a similar amount of support among Republican voters in the first primary state.
McCain chose not to campaign in Iowa, spending only two days and little money there. Instead, he concentrated on the N.H. election, where he has had more success with potential voters.
Indeed, the Iowa presidential nominating process is known for its peculiarity. On the Republican side, votes are cast by open ballot in schools, churches, and other public areas around the state. And Democratic supporters participate in public debates and discussions before registering their support for a candidate.
Turnout is another idiosyncrasy in Iowa. Of the state's 1.8 million residents, fewer than 100,000 were estimated to have endured the cold winter journey to caucus sites.
