Even as the first presidential election of the new millennium looms, the 2000 election is unlikely to be a watershed election, predicted Government Professor Linda Fowler last night in 2 Rockefeller Center.
A surge in voter turnout, shifts in party attachments, clearly differentiated party platforms and emergence of competitive candidates are considered characteristics of a watershed election, and Fowler said these conditions were unlikely to be met in 2000.
Political scandals have led to an increased cynicism in politics affecting voter turnout. Referring to the low turnout in the 1998 congressional election as an example, Fowler said such cynicism has created widespread public apathy.
The emergence of competitive candidates was also unlikely in the upcoming elections, Fowler said. Texas Governor George W. Bush is running away with the Republican nomination not as a result of what Bush personally brings into the election, but because of the weak field of Republican candidates in general, she said.
Although Bush has a magnetic appeal and a wide name recognition because of his father who was formerly President of the United States, Fowler said that the younger Bush has not been tested politically.
Democratic candidates are difficult to distinguish as well, Fowler said, adding Vice President Al Gore and former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley have similar agendas.
Fowler identified the significance of watershed elections and pointed out some resemblance between the 2000 scenario and the major watershed election of 1896. She said America is currently undergoing economic restructuring with major advances in communication and transportation as in the late 19th century.
She also pointed to the high number of immigrants like in the late 1800s as a significant cause of a possible watershed. However, Fowler rejected the chances of these factors playing a significant role in 2000. She said the absence of a "big issue" in America like a war, economic depression or civil rights activism has led to apathy among voters.
She said severe contradictions exist in the party system. The Republicans are split on issues of religion, gun control, race issues, abortion and economic policies. Fowler said the Democrats are also divided over important questions of free-trade and welfare. Both parties are also split over foreign policy and aid.
She said American electoral politics is on the decline. She blamed "institutional food fights" between the Congress and Presidency and media coverage of unimportant, albeit personal, political agendas for the serious decline.
"Citizens care about governance and about what people are going to do in office," she said.
Fowler expressed concerns that America is trivializing politics, fuelling public cynicism, reducing the effectiveness of government, postponing long-term problems and alienating new citizens and young voters.
