Leno or Letterman?
A few years ago, this was the pertinent question facing the followers of the late-night talk show war. David Letterman had crossed over to CBS to host "The Late Show," an opportunity created for Letterman after NBC chose Jay Leno to host "The Tonight Show."
A ratings war ensued with Letterman capturing a majority of the late-night audience while Leno struggled with internal squabbles such as the firing of agent/producer Helen Kushnick and the departure of band leader Branford Marsalis.
The control of the late-night audience switched, however, beginning with the appearance of an embarrassed Hugh Grant on "The Tonight Show" following his infamous escapade with prostitute Divine Brown. In addition, popular shows such as "Seinfeld" and "ER" served as great lead ins, causing many viewers to stay fixed to NBC throughout the night. Leno has consistently remained ahead of Letterman since that time, even pushing Letterman to third in the late-night war, behind ABC's "Nightline."
Subsequently, this audience switch has paved the way for the success of "Late Night with Conan O'Brien." Leno viewers able to remain awake until 12:35 began to stay tuned to this red-haired writer from Harvard and as a result, "Late Night" has developed a substantial following of its own.
This late-night success, however, could be in jeopardy. During the 1998 Winter Olympics, which were broadcast on CBS, Letterman enjoyed a rare victory over Leno for the two-week event.
Although Leno regained his lead following the Olympics, his weakness in the face of a popular lead-in show was demonstrated. In fact, Leno could have serious problems if the current NBC downfall continues.
One possible area of concern is NBC's loss of the National Football League. When CBS outbid NBC for the right to broadcast American Football Conference games, it gained a commodity that had been under NBC control for many years.
The reemergence of football on CBS (it had previously broadcast National Football Conference games until Fox won those rights) provides CBS with a means of reaching a greater number of viewers in promoting "The Late Show." If football viewers are interested in a particular celebrity that will appear on Letterman the following week, they are more apt to watch him instead of Leno.
In addition, without football broadcasts, NBC loses the weekly opportunity to reach the football audience. This Sunday afternoon advertising time had been used previously by NBC to promote their weekly shows, including "The Tonight Show."
Now, however, NBC will no longer have the ability to reach the large football audience to promote weekly programming which had served as a lead in to Leno, creating a domino effect that will result in a gain in ratings by Letterman.
Another severe problem facing NBC and "The Tonight Show" is the end of "Seinfeld." The Thursday night "Must See TV" was based around the success of the popular sitcom and many of the shows' viewers, through their devotion to NBC on this night, stayed tuned to "The Tonight Show." Thus, "Seinfeld" was essential in the ratings war which Leno has won for the last few years.
With the loss of "Seinfeld," however, NBC no longer has a sure-fire hit as an introduction to Leno. In addition, if a domino effect results from the end of "Seinfeld" (such as loss of promotion during the 9 to 9:30 time slot of other NBC shows) causing other programs such as "Just Shoot Me," "Friends," and "Veronica's Closet" to lose popularity, NBC will no longer have the ability to reach as many viewers on Thursday night.
The domino affect caused by the loss of football will continue, as self-promotion of other non-Thursday programs will no longer reach as many viewers, ultimately resulting in a decreased advertising ability throughout the week to promote "The Tonight Show."
One bright spot for NBC is the ever rising success of "Late Night." The unique brand of comedy that Conan uses every night appeals to a different audience that the boring one-on-one conversation format of Tom Snyder's "The Late, Late Show."
It is doubtful that Conan's audience of die-hard "Late Night" viewers will defect to the humor-repressed Snyder show and therefore, ratings for Conan should not go down.
The possible backlash against "The Tonight Show," however, from the loss of popular NBC programming could result in a victory in the late-night wars to Letterman. Unless NBC can create new shows to combat the CBS football takeover, Letterman will benefit from increased advertising of his show and become the late night winner.
