"Seinfeld." It has been with us for nine years. It has been the number-one comedy on television for the last three years. Every year, Seinfeld nets $200 million in advertising revenues. It is more than merely a show -- it is a phenomenon. And it is the lynchpin behind NBC's number one network status.
When NBC discovered that no amount of money was going to convince Jerry Seinfeld, star and creator of Seinfeld, to continue the series, the race to try to salvage NBC's primacy as a network began. NBC's unbeatable Thursday night, a powerhouse for many, many years, was the first priority. Losing "Seinfeld" was like losing "The Cosby Show" or "Cheers," perhaps even worse. Without the right replacement, NBC's Thursday night, and with it, the rest of the week, could come crashing down.
Now NBC's President of Programming Warren Littlefield faces the unenviable decision of how to replace "Seinfeld." It is universally agreed that there are only a few viable choices. There's Kelsey Grammer's hit "Cheers" spin-off, "Frasier," which currently holds down Tuesday nights.
The other strongest contender is Thursday night's other powerhouse comedy, "Friends." Other sitcoms whose names have been bandied about include the zany sci-fi comedy "Third Rock from the Sun" and the newly successful "Just Shoot Me."
Everyone has their own ideas on this crucial choice. Most every publication has been or will be taking a stab at deciding for NBC. Now I will divulge my expert opinions.
"Frasier" would be a strong choice for NBC. Its ratings are high, and its cast and material are showing no signs of growing stale. Also, its intellectual humor would probably agree with the fairly well-educated crowd "Seinfeld" draws. It's a very different show, but what show isn't different from "Seinfeld?"
Still, there are major problems in replacing "Seinfeld" with "Frasier." First, there is the practical concern of what would replace "Frasier." Tuesday night is strong for NBC, and I believe cannibalizing it in favor of Thursday would be ill-advised. While both shows have an intellectual flavor, "Frasier" could be a little too intellectual for fans used to bets on masturbation and "shrinkage."
"Frasier" can't match the raciness of Seinfeld and that makes it an older audience show. That is one route NBC cannot afford to go on Thursday night. Right now, NBC rules the coveted 18-49 demographic, but pushing up the average age of Thursday night watchers could affect that valued status, hurting NBC's attractiveness to advertisers.
"Third Rock from the Sun" is just about as different from "Seinfeld" as situation comedies get from each other. While many columnists believe "Third Rock" will be chosen as the replacement, I think this would be a terrible idea. "Third Rock" simply does not fit in with the rest of Thursday night's comedies.
The sitcoms of NBC Thursday night are character-based comedies about smart, urban, young (well, fairly young) people. The key to NBC's success is a smooth-running series of comedies that keeps viewer tuned in all the way to the show-stopper: "ER." "Third Rock" would jar the viewer far too much to be the most important part of this strategy.
"Just Shoot Me" is a delightful new comedy from the writers of "Friends." It was a mid-season replacement last year and now is enjoying some measure of success. It was recently moved to the can't miss (this season, anyway) slot between "Friends" and "Seinfeld," replacing the dismal "Union Square." Its ensemble cast includes several extremely funny stars, especially David Spade. Their chemistry is good and the writing is crisp. It's one of the first new sitcoms in a long while to be of any quality.
So why can't it replace "Seinfeld?" It's new. There's no way NBC can risk their most important time slot on a relatively untested new comedy, no matter how good. "Just Shoot Me," in time, will become a powerhouse in its own right. Right now, however, it should be nursed in good time slots, nurtured until it too can anchor the Peacock's crucial night.
Of course that leaves us with "Friends," the only real choice NBC can make. It's in New York, it has great writing, youth appeal, and it's proven. People will tune in to "Friends," no matter what time slot it occupies. With better, less annoying marketing, "Friends" could easily be brought back into the national spotlight. Its stars are ever-more visible each year with their film projects (whether acclaimed or not). It's the natural choice and the right choice.
So, Warren, just move "Friends" to 9 p.m. Put a strong show, such as "Mad About You," at eight, filling the space in between with "Just Shoot Me." Soon enough, "Just Shoot Me" will have legs of its own. Send it into the 8 p.m. slot and put your best new show at 8:30.
I have no doubt if you follow my instructions, you'll remain unchallenged victor every Thursday. So, think I could have a job?
