Well, the numbers are in from the New Hampshire Primary, and the race continues to get more and more intriguing. Here's my list of who really won and who really lost Tuesday night.
First, the winners ...
Pat Buchanan: Thanks to his literal win, nobody labels Buchanan a "fringe candidate" anymore. His low-budget, high-passion campaign has produced impressive results, even if most of the people who didn't support him, regardless of political affiliation, seem frightened of him. He may have trouble with raising funds from Republican corporate sources, since his emphasis on social issues and his populist and isolationist stances on foreign policy in general and trade policy in particular are inimical to business interests. Buchanan has one major advantage: his supporters seem to feel stronger about their candidate than anyone else's supporters. And even if Buchanan doesn't get the Republican nomination, he will most likely have significant influence over the details of the 1996 GOP convention in San Diego and its platform. Which, given his taste for controversy, is probably good news for ...
Clinton/Gore and the Democrats: Will Rogers' famous quip "I belong to no organized political party; I am a Democrat," seems to apply equally to the Republicans these days. The "religious right" is firmly behind Buchanan, as Dole and Lamar Alexander fight for the mainstream conservative vote, with Forbes courting the GOP's quasi-libertarian wing. Clinton is facing no real primary opposition and in the Democratic race managed to get a support level similar to Ronald Reagan in 1984. It is not clear whether the Democratic strategy of running against the Republican Congress and painting the opposition as extremists will work in the long run, but the GOP has done little recently to make people doubt such allegations. Democrats everywhere are declaring "If you liked Houston in '92, you'll love San Diego in '96," and they may well be right.
Lamar Alexander: He proved his strong third place showing in Iowa was no fluke. Only a blip on the scope of the polls in New Hampshire a few short weeks ago, Alexander and his band of red-plaid-clad supporters are making a lot of noise in the race, though his appeal is not entirely certain. Some see him as a sensible moderate, others as a solidly conservative "Washington outsider," a semi-paradox that may cause him trouble in the long run. Like Buchanan, Alexander is not awash in contributions, but seemed to be a major beneficiary of the Forbes media onslaught that gave people a sense that Bob Dole was beatable. Of course, now Alexander needs to build on his success and win an early race or two, since a third-place finish is still a third-place finish, however impressive it looks.
"Retail Politics:" That term refers to such things as door-to-door "get out the vote" campaigns and candidates talking to ordinary citizens and grabbing photo-ops at cafes in small towns in the area as opposed to wholesale, mass-media campaigns centered around television advertising. The candidate that most attempted to buy the election with a mass-media blitz and had very little in terms of grass-roots operations failed miserably. Enough said.
And now, the losers ...
Bob Dole: He's not dead by any means, but he's wounded. The race was considered his to lose only a few weeks ago. Nearly everybody who's anybody in the New Hampshire GOP backed him, and it still wasn't enough. His surprise that "jobs and trade would be issues in the election" seemed to echo the cluelessness of George Bush circa 1992. But it could have been worse. And Dole has an organization and resources that vastly outweigh those of any other Republican hopeful: for instance, Buchanan and Alexander won't even be on the ballot in most of New York state. The senator is still the favorite for the nomination, but will need to satisfy his core constituency while not appearing beholden to extremists, a delicate balance his predecessor couldn't manage.
Steve Forbes: Further proof that you can't buy an election. Forbes had no real organization here, relying too heavily on television advertising. People thought his ads were too negative, and they tired of them long before Tuesday. The negativity obscured his one issue, the flat tax, a good issue to run on in New Hampshire, a militantly anti-tax state. The money will keep Forbes in the hunt, but he's not too likely to win in Arizona or Delaware, two other states on which he's been focusing, and if he doesn't, every dime spent on his campaign thereafter would be better spent buying the Brooklyn Bridge.
The Republican Party: They're looking fractious and divided, which has been the norm for the Democrats in recent years, not Republicans. The quicker they unify around an electable candidate, probably Dole or Alexander, the better their chances at unseating President Clinton. The chances of that unity developing quickly don't look promising, given the wide disparities of opinion about positions on the issues (economic and social), and how to prioritize those positions.
"Retail Politics:" Nobody with any sense of politics thinks that there will be less rather than more of a mass-media advertisement assault the next time the presidential hopefuls come to the Granite State. Enough said.
