If you are one of the 190 people on the Lou Spelios '95 daily BlitzMail weather update, then you know when it is the kind of day so cold your nose freezes within a minute of leaving the dorm.
"I've tested the temperature which causes your nose to freeze. I knew it was around zero degrees, so I would go out at different times," he said. "I've found it's at minus 2 degrees."
Spelios sends out a daily forecast covering the Hanover area for 48 hours to anyone interested. He is a self-taught weather buff with a real interest in storms and has been studying the weather for 11 years.
"I got interested in the weather when my family got cable," Spelios said. "While other kids were watching MTV, I was watching the weather channel. I don't know why, but I was just fascinated by it."
One Christmas Spelios asked for weather reading instruments - a barometer, a rain gauge and a thermometer - to gain hands-on experience, he said.
"I made three observations a day starting in 1985, which solidified my understanding of the weather, and based on what I had seen before, I learned what to expect," he said.
Spelios said he would take readings for barometric pressure, the relative humidity, the current temperature and sky condition in order to make a prediction. "Basically it was trial and error for a while," Spelios said.
When he came to Dartmouth, Spelios stopped making observations and began formulating his reports with the aid of Accu-Weather satellite, radar and surface maps which he obtains over his computer.
"I think I've gotten better at making predictions, but I'm not perfect. You can never be perfect about the weather. That's why it's fun," Spelios said.
When he was a freshman, Spelios said friends heard about his hobby and asked him if he would post the weather daily on a bulletin board on the first floor of Hinman Hall. The next year his updates were still in demand so Spelios began blitzing his information, he said.
"The weather affects people's lives," he said. "People want to know what to expect, and even when they know it and it happens, they aren't always happy about it."
Spelios' reports give general ranges for temperature and precipitation, as well as sky conditions and the wind chill.
His worst prediction called for a snow storm to produce 8 to 10 inches, when accumulation was only 1 inch.
"I don't think anyone expects me to be perfect," Spelios said. "When I send out a forecast, I give myself a 5 to 6 degree margin for error. If the weather is within the range, that's accurate."
Colleen Phelan '95, who has been on Spelios' weather list since her sophomore year, said she has asked questions about the terms in the reports.
"Sometimes I write back with questions ... and he responds right away with a nice blitz," she said.
Spelios has been tracking the storm currently moving up the East coast but does not want to make a prediction yet.
"The storm is coming," he said, "but it's being kind of fickle. It's difficult to forecast. There are days that I'm just not sure."
Here it is for today and the record books: "Cloudy with a steadier snow developing. Northeast wind 10 to 20 mph. High 26 to 32. Thursday night: Snow ending late with a gusty northeast wind. Low 17 to 22."
