Spyer discusses Middle East policies
Jonathan Spyer, a senior research fellow at the Global Research in International Affairs Center, discussed the decline of U.S. power in the Middle East. Jonathan Spyer, a senior research fellow at the Global Research in International Affairs Center, discussed the decline of U.S. power in the Middle East.
By Daniel Leder
Published on Wednesday, May 18, 2011
American power in the Middle East has diminished following recent uprisings and protests in the region, Jonathan Spyer, a senior research fellow at the Global Research in International Affairs Center in Herzliya, Israel, said in a lecture at the Rockefeller Center on Tuesday afternoon. Regime overthrows in the Arab world have reignited “the fire” in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and shifted more power to Iran, according to Spyer.
The peace effort between Israel and Palestine had been moving “slowly and torturously, but unmistakably” toward a resolution over the past 40 years, with the help of U.S. officials, Spyer said. The increase in Iranian influence in the Middle East is undermining American hegemony in the Middle East and affecting its role in negotiations between Israel and Palestine. The United States’ power in the region is being continuously diminshed, especially after the “Arab Spring,” a series of uprisings and protests in the region, according to Spyer.
A new group of Iranian elites, many of whom participated in the 1979 Iranian Revolution, is disappointed by the current political situation in the country, Spyer said. The regime, in place since 1979, was supposed to bring a “rule of righteous and rule of the pure,” but has become a corrupt and unpopular regime that governs without majority consent, Spyer said.
Officials in the Iranian theocracy have attempted to re-establish legitimacy by pursuing an ambitious foreign policy. They hope to use the Palestinian-Israeli conflict as “a shortcut to win the hearts and minds” of the Iranian people, Spyer said.
The growing “Islamization” of Middle Eastern politics also has serious implications for both the Middle East and the Western world, according to Spyer. Hypothetically, if Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Egypt held elections, for instance, the victorious regime would subscribe to some form of political Islam, he said.
Although the “Arab Spring” has not transformed the political landscape in the Middle East, it has altered the traditional balance of power, according to Spyer.
“Despotism is not on the way out, and democracy is not on the way in,” Spyer said.
Recent protests in the Middle East may drastically impact the “strategic architecture” of the region, Spyer said. The current climates in Egypt, Bahrain and Syria demonstrate that American influence in the Middle East is diminishing, according to Spyer.
Egypt previously served as the “linchpin” of Middle Eastern nations’ political power and American foreign policy, Spyer said. In failing to support former Egyptian President Muhammad Mubarak, America has compromised that stability by pursuing a “mistaken” policy, Spyer said.
The Muslim Brotherhood — an Islamist organization that wields political influence in Egypt — will control up to 50 percent of the new Egyptian parliament, which will be elected in September 2011, Spyer said. Egypt’s new president will likely be a traditional Arab nationalist hostile who is towards both Israel and the West, he said.
The current situation in Bahrain is indicative of Saudi distrust of the United States, Spyer said. Egypt and Bahrain had both been pro-Western dictatorships, but after witnessing the American response to the Egyptian uprisings, Saudi Arabia intervened to protect King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa’s monarchy from popular protests calling for democratic reform. Such Saudi Arabian intervention may further weaken American influence in the Middle East, according to Spyer.
While the United States failed to help Egypt, its strategic ally, put down a popular uprising, “the precise opposite” has occurred in the case of Iran supporting its strategic ally Syria, Spyer said. Iranian military aid has enabled the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad — a Shiite dictator in a nation with an overwhelming Sunni majority — to reassert itself, according to Spyer.
The current dynamic in the Middle East, in which the pro-Western Egyptian and Tunisian regimes have fallen while pro-Iranian monarchies remain strong, will likely weaken Western influence in the Middle East and strengthen radical trends throughout the region, according to Spyer.
The increased influence of Islam throughout the Middle East enabled an overtly anti-Israeli Hamas — included on the U.S. list of official terrorist organizations — to establish an alliance with the more moderate political party Fatah, Spyer said. Due to the radical Hamas influence, Palestine will be far less likely to make territorial and other concessions to Israel, he said.
The lecture was sponsored by Dartmouth Students for Israel, Dartmouth Chabad and Hillel.